Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts

Sunday, February 2, 2020

Intermediate Top Alert


Stock markets fell last week as concerns over a new virus swept the globe.  S&P 500 index fell nearly 70 points to close at 3,225.52.

Those who follow Elliott Wave counting have been looking for an end to the current wave up, so a down move has not surprised some.  For others, fear that the market's current stretch is overdone, has caused concern.

As the chart shows, price has dropped down to break through the stop-loss marker generated by the Wilder's Parabolic indicator.  a break below the stop loss indicator signals the investor to sell the position and reverse course, using a new stop indicator that begins to form stemming from the last high price.  A closer examination of this chart SPX Parabolic Chart shows that in sideways markets, it could cause one to sell at the bottom only to rebuy at the top.  


Looking at the daily chart, with a Bollinger Band, one can see that price has reached the bottom of the band, for some, that could indicate an oversold level and a buy.

When I look at such a situation, I begin tracking the standard deviation which can be seen in this chart on the indicator BBW.  This is the Bollinger Band Width.  As the Bollinger Band width increases, it tells me that volatility is increasing and I want to stay with the trend.

We can also see that the other times that price has hit this lower level of the bands, it rebounded and stocks continued along on their merry way, ever higher.  A difference that we may see now is that there has been real economic damage as a result of the virus.  China is being sealed off as neighboring countries close borders and airlines cancel flights to China.  The potential economic effects of the situation has not been lost on bonds which continue to rally towards the highs.



Bonds have been rip-roaring for the past two weeks and appears to be headed much higher.  That said, having a proper asset allocation in your investment portfolio should help you should stocks continue to fall.

Also, Gold has been a key performer.



And while I have been touting Gold and Silver for awhile now, few have gotten on board neither participating in normal market accounts through exchange traded funds such as GLD and SLV, or through outright physical purchases.  

Both bonds and precious metals have moved opposite of the market offering a balance in a diversified portfolio.


Lots more market action to come this next week.  How you want to position yourself depends upon your overall outlook.

Very Long Term Outlook SPX  This link takes you to my TradingView market charts page.  I encourage you to go there and follow my thoughts as we go through the market gyrations.  In this long term outlook, with prices going back beyond 1929's great depression, one might see that the market outlook appears to be on track to advance for decades to come.  

On the intermediate term however, the first SPX chart shows my expectations for the next week.  Prices should rally to test the weekly highs.  If we fail to exceed the highs, I expect that prices will fall back.  How deep the correction will be is hard to say but from past experiences with such tests of the high, a failure usually brings about a significant decline.  My first expectation is a move down to the 3100 level by March option expiration.  I will be planning to purchase put option spreads, through March expiration, to capture this expected move.  But as in the past, these setups have more often than not played out as events such as the Fed adding liquidity or the President pounding the table to buy have overshadowed normal expectations.

It's hard to imagine that the market will be able to get any traction on the downside, at least not until after the elections in November.  But considering that many investigations into Trump, culminating with an Impeachment trial have yet to get Trump out of office, perhaps the only way would be to destroy the economy so prevent his reelection.  

The president appears to be extremely vigilant though of this possibility and his immediate criticism of the Fed when they tried to raise rates shows that any actions by others to hurt the market are quickly addressed.  While this time may be different, I expect that news that an antidote for the virus has been found and off to all time highs - again.  

What do you think?  It will be an interesting week in the markets for sure.

Be sure to visit my Trading View site at https://www.tradingview.com/u/Glewis54/

Saturday, July 9, 2016

Jobs Data Delights All

STOCKS SURGE

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported employment gains far exceeding even the most bullish expectations Friday.  Preliminary numbers indicate that payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June.  US stocks climbed to highs on the news with the Standard and Poors 500 index closing at 2,129.90.



BONDS SURGE

US Bonds surged to all time highs Friday on BLS reports that the number of unemployed individuals in the US increased by 347,000.  The Unemployment Rate advanced 0.2% to 4.9%.

The 30 Year Bond Yield Index (TYX) closed at 21.10 (2.11%).  Levels not seen before.  Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) TLT, an easy way to trade bonds on the stock market, closed at an all time high of 143.60.



PRECIOUS METALS HIT MULTI-YEAR HIGHS

Not to be left out of the party, precious metals, although they sold off initially when the employment news was released, quickly reversed and closed at multi-year highs.


SLV, one of the ways to trade silver on the stock market,  ended the week at 19.22, up $0.48 or 2.6%.


All in all, most things did well with the exception of European and Latin American stocks and commodities (not including precious metals).




This all comes as no surprise.  As mentioned last week, the jobs number didn't really matter.  Central banks, unable to get any kind of inflation going, are desperate to stimulate the economies and continue to print more and more currencies in an effort to do so.  It's not really working but the extra added juice sure does some good stuff to the markets.

For a few years now, I've been accumulating physical gold and silver even as I watched prices fall, seemingly forever.  It's not easy for most people to look at physical things like precious metal bullion coins and not think of them in terms of their worth in dollars.  The trick in the understanding is to realize that since 2008/2009, the Federal Reserve has increased the money they have created from around $800 billion to over $4 trillion, nearly a five time increase.  Local banks, through the fractional reserve system, create additional multiples of this amount.  When you understand how much new money has been created and then consider that there is absolutely nothing that backs this currency, a prudent person would be thinking "I've got to turn this worthless currency into a hard asset as soon as I can."


A CHART TO THINK UPON

As I am always talking about gold and silver to people, the one thing I hear all the time is, what good is it?  You can't eat it.  They can't conceive that the US Dollar could be as vulnerable to devaluation as the Russian Ruble or the Mexican Peso.  The truth is, any paper currency is only worth what others accept it to be worth.  If a dollar crisis were to occur, something similar to what continues to be happening in Greece, one needs some form of money to transact daily business with.  Who knows how it can or will play out.


Throughout much of civilization, silver has been used as a currency and perhaps someday, it will again.  If it were today, and the stock market was priced in silver, this is how it would look.

So while the stock market may be going up and even making new all time highs, remember, when we are looking at price charts of the market, it is soaring based on purchases made with paper money that has no real value.  It was created from nothing, with no assets backing it up and is being used in unlimited quantities to keep pushing stock prices higher.  But the stock market, when priced in terms of something that has an intrinsic value, like silver, is in a Bear Market.


BONDS (TLT) PRICED IN GOLD (GLD)


Looking at bonds in terms of gold, this is breaking down as well.

Don't let surging markets influence your buying decisions, Central Bankers can create the illusion they wish to create.  If we do our homework, we can catch a glimpse of reality.


Saturday, June 4, 2016

The Charade Continues

I marveled at the markets this past week or so as prices on the Standard and Poor's 500 and other major indexes JUST WON'T GO DOWN!! 

It was almost humorous to see the big opening moves down each day over the past week and then see prices climb back for the rest of the day.


While I don't know for sure, it was reported last week that Anonymous hacked into the Federal Reserve trading accounts and discovered that the Fed owns more than 50% of many major corporations. 

https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/1384

Would anyone really be surprised?  I mean people who watch and study the market closely, not the average guy.  Most of us who have been involved in markets for 30 years or more see that nothing works anymore.  No level of technical or fundamental analysis works.  The markets reflect the activities of the central banks, to include the Federal Reserve's Plunge Protection Team (PPT) and their crony's the High Frequency Traders.  Many believe that Citadel is actually a pseudo-extension of the Federal Reserve.  And the game extends to our national elected officials who not too long ago rejected a bill that would prohibit them from buying stocks on the knowledge they have (i.e., insider trading).  For sure, why would they cook the golden goose?

So for my part, I have maintained a position in SDS and have more or less ignored it for quite awhile now.  We are back to the low points where I had done my last accumulations but have chosen to buy no more.  It is my contention that the Federal Reserve and their agents will keep the markets up at least until the election in November.  This seemed to have been confirmed when US President Barack Obama met privately with Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen.  Of course no notes were taken of the meeting.  One can only guess what the President and Chairman might be discussing. 

WHERE DO WE TURN?

Well, all is not lost.  A review of the markets to date shows the following:


It's clear to see that Silver and Gold have been the standouts this year.  And of course, it only makes sense with world central banks continuing to print more money to monetize debt.  I recall reading that some $10 trillion in sovereign debt now carries negative interest rates.  How unfortunate it is for us minions that we can't take on more debt and get paid for doing it.  It would be like being promised free gasoline if you buy a new car.  Imagine.

So paper currency is really worthless.  After all interest rates do reflect the cost of money and there is no cost.  Think about that when you are slaving away at your job and for what?  You get paid in worthless fiat currency.  What a delusion.  So for a few years now, I have been mindlessly buying physical gold and silver.  I do so with pleasure as I can't wait to unload the worthless fiat currency.  I have thoroughly brainwashed myself in this truth.  If I believe it, then it must be true, right?

Well I do have something solid that for the millennia has held value.  And I do love the idea that these precious metals were forged in the fires of some exploding super nova gazillions of years ago.  Also that all of the gold that was ever mined is still in existence today.  Who knows who could have handled some of the gold?  Perhaps Alexander the Great or Jesus?  Who can say?  It lasts forever.

So I could continue on about the value of hard assets that include real estate as well, but living in Illinois and even worse, Cook County, both virtually bankrupt entities, property taxes can and will grow to the sky to the point that the governments will eventually seize all properties due to tax delinquencies.  Imagine that, the Fed will own all the mortgages and the governments will be fighting for the title.  Anyway, I digress.

I do favor silver at this point and here are some charts to justify my thoughts.



This chart shows the Exchange Traded Fund that reflects the value of silver.  The price here is a little less than the actual physical silver because, well let's face it, this price reflects a digital entry or paper certificate.  Theoretically, there is supposed to be the actual commodity backing it, theoretically.  So it costs less than the actual stuff you can put in your pocket.  And rightfully so.  Gee, am I feeling cynical this morning?

It does appear that we have had a nice bounce after several years of downward movement.  Keep in mind that real buyers of precious metals feel that price is irrelevant since paper money has no intrinsic value at all.  Anyway, for those who do like to buy low and sell high, Silver has made a strong move up and the 20 week moving average is now trending higher.  The trend is your friend.


GOLD SILVER RATIO


For a long time now, for as bad as gold has been, silver has been even worse!  The chart above shows the gold/silver ratio.  Gold has been almost 80 times more valuable than silver!  This is extremely abnormal since silver and gold are mined together with a ratio of 15 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold.  By recent historical levels, one would expect a gold/silver ratio of about 30.  It got up to 80!

The chart shows that this ratio has broken down some and rebounded, but only to the moving average.  Let's see if it continues breaking down, as it should.


SP500/SILVER RATIO


This chart too is starting to break down meaning that silver is starting to outperform stocks.  This is a no brainer as we saw in the table that silver is up 18% on the year while stocks are just managing to keep their heads above water.

Could be that silver will continue to be the big winner, besting both stocks and gold.

A word of caution though, if you do buy physical precious metals, be sure to keep them close at hand and not in a bank safety deposit box.  If currencies do collapse (think of Venezuela, Argentina, Greece, Cyrus, etc.) you will not be able to get into the bank to access your valuables. 
____________________________

Bottom Line:  I'm curious to see if I'm right and the markets do stay up until the election.  This would go to prove just how rigged the system really is.

Saturday, May 7, 2016

Three Week Test of High Next Week



As expected, markets closed down again for the second week in a row, setting up an anticipated topping formation, a three week test of the recent highs.

Should we fail this test of the high, expect some Central Bank to come out and goose the markets again.

They'll do everything that they can to keep it going until the system collapses.







As the table shows, it appears that the world might be in line with this thought.  Silver and gold continue to be the big winners on the year.  Can you guess why?

The move to the precious metals is the obvious conclusion in the world of manipulated paper assets.
 

Thursday, April 10, 2014

How Much Longer with the U.S. Dollar Last?

 
By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com
 
A global clash of nations is underway in full gear. The storm is picking up speed, power, intensity, and damaging force. Many are the swirls of the current situation. A hodgepodge of topics have been caught and trapped, best to discharge on paper, the effect like a wondrous enema. The banker lies grow thicker, as they are unable to so easily deceive anymore. The potential currency fix appears more imminent, as the solution seen as an assault on American interests (military angle). Any nation getting off the US Wagon Train is a rogue nation, the theme having become tired and ineffective. The fatal errors committed by the US economists and banker elite have finally resulted in clear signs of systemic failure. The psychological warfare is like a gigantic fog, as people's defenses are being challenged, even those based in fantasy and convenience. The world is undergoing change, the nightmare continues, while the Paradigm Shift moves into the fast lane by expedience. Entire swaths of wealth are being waterlogged, tainted, and ruined. The USDollar has been stuck in the corner for three years, finally pushed into the corner crack, sure to fall below the matt, where below lies a spittoon. The Hat Trick Letter informs and warns the public, converts the disheartened and confused among us, edifies clients, and provides forecasts like signposts to guide in the increasing fascist darkness. At the same time, it seems to drive families crazy, since when attempting to admonish and caution, the efforts are often seen as uncomfortable overturning of the temple tables (business and mental). So be it. Forewarned is forearmed, but many prefer their delusions and homes built upon false assumptions. The Jackass prefers reality accountable to the flow of events and verified facts, where actions can be taken in defense of livelihood and even life savings. The clash of worlds must be reported and properly understood.
 
CENTRAL BANKER LIARS
Newly appointed USFed Chair Janet Yellen has wasted no time in her stream of lies. The crime syndicate headquarters talks of  tapering the bond monetization volume. As preface, be sure to know that unsterilized bond purchases, introduction of newly printed money without drainage in similar volume steps, has been considered the ultimate heretical practice for decades by the Economist Schools. It is called the greatest monetary sin, but now is blessed as a solution, perhaps no longer temporary. The Yellen Fed talks repeatedly about poor economic conditions, about weak bank structures, about punky labor markets, but also about improving something or other, while it speaks lies in great strokes. The financial circles applaud, while the business community languishes. They talk of reductions in the QE volumes, but they use back doors and proxies, hardly out of view. Yellen moved to the U6 jobless rate index, shoving the deceptive Clinton U3 jobless rate in the toilet. The USFed now has employed the Belgian bank as the new Caribbean offshore site. Its USTreasury Bond holdings are moving toward the $200 billion level. Recall this little turd on the economic table has no surplus and barely has an economy at all outside the finance sector. It operates as a parliament center and commission home office for pedafiles. The other deceptive tools used by the Yellen Fed are the same as those used by the Bernanke Fed, the powerful interest rate swap derivative. It produces leveraged phony demand without buyers, thus creates bond rallies out of thin air. Several banker murders were done to conceal the London Whale losses, estimated over $100 billion in the derivatives market. The story remains suppressed.
 
The Weimar machinery is working overtime and 24/7 to cover the USTBonds that no nation wants, except for Belgium and Japan, which was almost overlooked. The Asian lackey continues to buy USTBonds out of duty, under Yakuza threat (from Langley masters), in order to prevent an unwanted rise in the Japanese Yen exchange rate. They have lost their trade surplus during the industrial rise of China. Maintaining the Yen currency suppression via USTBond purchase will have to go the monetization route, a destructive path that worries many competent responsible financial firms in Tokyo. So the Yellen Fed is a liar institution, just like the Bernanke Fed. Do not expect Benjamin to be knighted, since he was just a store clerk to inaugurate QE bond purchases, a mere caretaker like President Gerald Ford. Poor Benjamin is busy collecting $200k speaker fees, where his message actually contradicts the policy he directed at the USFed itself for six years.
 
NEW GOLD-BACKED CURRENCIES
The time is finally right. The urgency is acute. The banking system insolvency is widespread. The illiquidity has reached the surface. The geopolitical chessboard has busy movements of many pieces, even with a delayed check in Ukraine after a devious capture of the Cyprus castle but not the Syrian knight. The Saudi support via OPEC for the Petro-Dollar has fallen out of view, dragging its pummeled chin on the desert sands. The Eastern superpowers are marching arm in arm, ready to challenge the West. It seems the Western leaders, in particular the robot sock puppets of the Untied States, see the end of the USDollar. They appear to wish to lay blame on Russia for the death of the dollar. The global rejection is well along, which began with the introduction of QE, then QE2, then Operation Twist. But the global rejection took flight after Taper Talk failed in its trial balloon, and achieved supersonic speed with the recognition of QE to Infinity was implicitly endorsed. The global rejection saw the prototype built in the hangar with the Iran sanction workarounds, where India bought Iran's oil & gas, but paid with Turkish gold, delivered to Tehran banks. The global rejection will achieve escape velocity with the acceptance of Russian Rubles for its energy products. The global rejection will achieve additional escape velocity with the acceptance of Chinese Yuan payments for Saudi crude oil (then all OPEC oil).
 
Coming is the launch of both the gold-backed Russian Ruble and the gold-backed Chinese Yuan. The global rejection will be final, and the funeral will be announced. They will enter the financial airspace first, followed by others. When the USMilitary defense of the USDollar is recognized as blatant, dishonorable, toothless, and ineffective, the other gold-backed currencies will follow. The isolated paper tiger was revealed in Syria. The toothless rampaging tiger will be revealed in Ukraine. The Kiev Govt is almost ready to collapse already. The Jackass originally expected the collapse to occur in six to nine months, but it looks more like three to four months.
 
The Russians and Chinese might put the first daggers in the USDollar heart, but numerous death blows will come from other parties. The water will be judged safe to enter. Expect the Saudis and fellow Arabs to launch a gold-backed Dinar currency. Expect the Germans and fellow Europeans (not from the Catholic South where socialism, absent industry, and slack work ethics prevail) to launch a gold-backed Nordic Euro. Expect the Latin Americans to rally behind Panama, the new Switzerland of the Americas. Several nations are reported onboard the launch of the gold-backed Panama Balboa. It will be supported by gold and copper, possibly crude oil. It will be the resource currency of the bunch. Watch closely Norway, which might launch a gold-backed Norwegian Krone, supported indirectly by crude oil. They can easily convert oil to gold, since crude is black gold. Watch certain groups of resource-rich African nations. They are extremely large in land mass and they are loaded with resources (energy) and minerals (metals). They could launch a few gold-backed currencies and declare independence from Western colonialists.
 
The USDollar might split soon, from external pressures and internal pressures. Foreign nations will no longer permit the QE bond monetization and currency debasement. The old version could remain but as the International Dollar, which will retain value. The new version might split in launch as the Scheiss Dollar, which will be deeply devaluated in steps. The Scheiss Dollar is the US ticket to the Third World, complete with imported price inflation, diverse product supply shortage, and widespread violence like at supermarkets for food, service stations for gasoline & diesel, and ATM machines for cash. The USDollar will not continue in its present form. Its central bank responsibility will split also, with China taking more control of the Intl Dollar, and the USDept Treasury taking control of the Scheiss Dollar launch and ensuing decisions. See their JPMorgan HQ acquisition as hint for critical changes. The Untied States Govt has a horrible task of financing its debt, which strongly resembles Third World type. It cannot without hyper monetary inflation, a temporary stopgap.
 
FATAL ECONOMIC POLICY ERRORS
The fatal errors in US banking and economic policy could fill a book. It might be a future Jackass publication. Hats off to Gonzalo Lira for his book"A Secret History of the American Crash" which is a docu-drama work in the year 2020 set in Los Angeles. It provides a real life look on the streets and offices at where the broken Untied States is heading, based upon systemic failure, economic ruin, and society impact. The economic errors have been enormous, steady, and unending. One must wonder if sabotage has been the higher order directive. The US nation used to be admired, well run at the corporate level, expert at the finance ministry, competent at the central bank. But so much went wrong. The Jackass has chronicled much of the erroneous pathways and the fatal national errors that have led to systemic failure, national insolvency, and ultimately debt default. It is a broken nation which has succumbed to a hidden fascist attack with full plunder. The Fascist Business Model is not properly recognized either, despite its integral role. The Jackass has harped on the concept for other eight years on a regular and frequent basis, pointing out the merger of state with big corporations (led by banks), pointing out the permitted financial fraud and banker welfare, even General Motors welfare, pointing out the economic effect, pointing out the war levers used to guarantee supply, and pointing out the systemic failure it has caused. Not 10% of Americans comprehend what fascism is, but 30% of the nation would qualify easily to serve as Nazi Youth Group leaders, possibly without realization of the group functions. Witness the honor guards and flag ceremonies at sporting events, including an occasional fighter jet flyover. This is not healthy, but rather a slippery path to a dark place. The bigger question is whether the US nation will recognize the Third World when it approaches with all its nasty trappings.
 
The fatal errors are many. They cannot be fully detailed. The seminal original sin was breaking off the Gold Standard by Nixon. In my book, the move was probably the second half of the arrangement to have Kennedy removed, followed by a clever deft move to install Kissinger. He created the Petro-Dollar mechanisms, by pushing for a quadruple in the crude oil price, then instituting the Petro Surplus Recycle plan, having the Saudis run OPEC, forcing nations to accumulate USTreasurys in their banking system. The Petro-Dollar defacto standard replaced the formal Gold Standard. The kicker benefit was that Arab nations and Iran were able to fill their coffers, buy fancy yachts, build casinos in the desert, erect oversized palaces to stroke their egos, arrange $million allowances for royal kids, and kick back profits to the USMilitary industrial complex, the monster to be fed. The Petro-Dollar has permitted the USEconomy to live off a credit card, without direct consequence to abused debt. The Petro-Dollar has permitted the USMilitary to seek out and conquer, to effect the hearts & minds, and to plunder. The creditor nations of the world realize their role as the victims who finance the field operations and covert operations. That all changed with the narcotics industry born in the Cambodia Triangle, advanced in the Kosovo depot, and accelerated in the Afghan poppy fields. The USGovt security agencies have had independent income for over three decades. Witness the first Langley coup of a foreign state in Ukraine. The untold story is the conflict between the USMilitary and the Langley Mercenaries. Look later to find the Odessa Ltd split, just like in the 1950 birth for the old Nazi Germany war machine enterprise.
 
Many are the errors. The US corporate titans responded to both environmental strictures and labor union demands, by relocating many operations in the Pacific Rim. The US domestic income source was displaced. The Americans sought to rely upon asset bubbles for income. They spent home equity on consumerism objectives, but in fairness often for necessities. The Greenspan Fed contributed significantly to the wrecked state. They moved away from valid monetary policy whereby money supply increase was to match economic growth. Instead, following the Rubin directive, the Mr Magoo cutout ordered the monetary aggregate to follow the Consumer Price Inflation index in the most egregious central bank error in modern history to that date. The falsified CPI enabled unchecked increases in money released within the system. Debt growth also exploded to create a USEconomy that resembled a cross between a hedge fund and a Ponzi scheme. The Irrational Exuberance speech was his disclaimer, a weak statement easily seen through by the Jackass and many others.
 
The promoted strategy of easy money being stimulus is patently false. The low interest rates actually act like a wet blanket, reducing income to savers, but keeping interest payments down. Unfortunately twice as much volume exists in accounts due interest income payouts, versus loan portfolios due interest from monthly service payments. To the contrary, easy money is a debt bomb and capital acid. The climax error was likely more a grand betrayal, granting China the Most Favored Nation status. The purpose stayed hidden for many years, to lease their gold by Wall Street firms. The result has been a loss of US legitimate income, during a period of profound capital investment in China by Western firms. The Western Govts idiotically complained about Chinese trade surpluses, when two thirds of their surpluses came from subsidiaries of Western firms with heavy blessed foreign direct investment. The result has been debt writedowns that take capital equipment and other fixed assets into the mothballs, while hyper inflation has killed capital directly. The result is systemic failure for the US nation, which can no longer finance its debt.
 
The mindset of the nation has been that to promote recovery, the people must be given money to put in their pockets for spending purposes. Wrong again, since what the people need is jobs, removal of heavy corporate taxation, and clearing of malodorous federal regulatory obstacles. The US nation has lost its way on what capitalism is. It embraces socialism, with all its ravages. It endorses austerity, which is nothing more than poison pills. It permits war machine aggression as foreign policy for both infrastructure alteration and currency defense. The nation can rebound if the capital structures are renovated and permitted to grow from seed, namely capital formation. This has become a foreign concept in the nation once considered the cradle of capitalism. The former communist nations have become the capitalism adopters, while the former capitalist nation leader has adopted national socialism (aka nazi). The Untied States will undergo re-industrialization again, but by the Chinese carpet baggers. They are loaded with $1.3 trillion in USTreasury Bonds.
 
Look at the new businesses that have been hatched in the last decade, as they litter the Wall Street landscape. They are truly pathetic. See NetFlix and FaceBook and Groupon and LinkeIn, even Twitter and Monster. The list is long and unimpressive. These are disk drive racks and elaborate living room couches and kitchen boxes. These are not corporations with deep capital investment and useful products flowing, intellectual capital exploited, value added from talented work forces, and enduring contributions to both economy and society. Look at the new national initiatives. There was the Green Revolution sponsored by Obama, but it proved to be a sham. See Solyndra and its fraudulent loans, the favorite personal Obama portfolio investment. There should have been a freight firm IPO to reward Obama ventures on gun running to Mexico. It could have become a good movement, for solar, for wind, for waves. Instead a fraudulent field, just like the mortgage weeded field. The new national initiative is the shale oil and fracking gas strategy, which is both short-lived and destructive. The shale oil revolution is a fleeting flash in the pan, requiring a Ponzi growth in new wells to compensate for extremely rapid wellhead depletion. The fracking gas movement punctures the natural tables, and thus contaminates the water supply, catering to the Halliburton monopoly on fracking chemicals. Not even witnessing evidence of tens of thousands of water pools on fire can stop this administration, hellbent on destruction.
 
Even the Obama Care national health insurance plan has hidden malignant tumor-like motives. See the slush funds to cronies, where money vanished. See the triple cost versus touted by officials. See the required financial statements that enable tracking other assets wished to remain in shadows. See the eventual ID chip implanted on the upper left arm. Feel the part-time nightmare response to the labor market. The disasters of the Obama Admin will be the stuff of history books. What Bush Jr Admin did to wreck the USEconomy from aggressive war costs, the Obama Admin complemented with wreckage of the USEconomy from internal caustic seeds.
 
PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE & FRAIL HOUSES
The US nation is filled with households that cover the spectrum. Many are very unhappy about the current path taken by the nation. Many are suddenly insecure with the popular inflation hedge in the home equity having vanished. Many are suddenly insecure also from the poor labor market, and the plethora of substandard jobs. Gone are the engineering jobs and foremen posts that used to pay well, or even bond issuer posts. They are replaced by fast food marts, cashier posts, retail sales, customer service, freight movers, secretaries, night watchmen, janitors, and cleaning staff. The nation has a new disease uncovered in many households, if the scattered reports from Hat Trick Letter clients reflects the masses. The Jackass refers to it as Arrogant Ignorance, which separates the ordinary bright educated masses from the Intellectuals. Take an intelligent person, remove the scientific method of working with verifiable evidence, add on assumptions embedded in defiance, sprinkle with some righteous indignation, add some old fashioned anger and insult, and you arrive at Arrogant Ignorance. This disease is rampant, and divides families. The Contempt Before Investigation, with harsh dismissal of actively thinking people, is a horrendous mental rotten apple all too often seen on the table. Both factors are ripe in the Jackass own original family, although the new adopted Latina families are far more open minded and promising. Let it be known that my father, although not in agreement with many perceptions and beliefs, has supported the newsletter, in particular with 2004 seed capital to accompany the intellectual sweat equity and shoestring needs. If professional workers used these weak mental methods in the work place, the would fail on a widespread basis, lose and look bad. The national condition is not being examined rationally, but rather emotionally and against weird psychological frameworks built in flimsy defense.
 
In the last three years, a few colleagues and the Jackass have investigated reasons why people do not investigate or show interest in the decayed financial structures and depleted economy. We examine why they choose to remain uninformed and in the dark.This is a new intriguing aspect of human psychology to me, and as fascinating as disturbing. Here are some conclusions after a couple of years. a) We conclude that some people have over-arching belief systems for their lives that are sacrosanct and not challenged. b) We conclude that some people are so frightened by certain threats, that they wish to ignore them. c) We conclude that some people wish to believe the leaders, laws, and system protect them, another sacred belief. d) We conclude that some people are successful in their work, and deeply invested in the current system, that they do not wish to alter the system in which they succeed. These justifications and phenomena are not comprehensive or exhaustive. They are a work in progress, which go together with the Stockholm Syndrome and the Warsaw Effect. These two address the emotional integration between victim and assailant, and the denial of threat while trapped within walls. However, integrate the four described items and something more perverse emerges. What appears is defense mechanisms for a failed nation and delusional defeated masses. Too many people have succumbed to the pressures, and remain hidden in their little anal caves.
 
HOPE IN GOLD STANDARD
The hope lies in Gold & Silver, if they can find any available supply, that is. The household and business savings hoard available to convert to precious metals is no longer ample, another challenge. The suppressed price has wrecked the market. The supply chain has been interrupted, with numerous mining firms putting marginal projects on hold or suspended them indefinitely. The Chinese are acquiring the mine capacity, and even courting the global mining firms, to take supply from the COMEX. The precious metal bars and coins remain the salvation for the masses. They should be accumulated despite all obstacles by the USGovt and protestations by unschooled irrational spouses. The downtrodden masses have hope. Their hope lies in a return to the Gold Standard, with a legitimate New Dollar currency. The nation must pay for its economic sins and financial frauds and warmongering deeds first. It will be a painful process, probably with an isolation which could resemble a quarantine, during a period of frightening chaos.
 
The Return to the Gold Standard will be a rocky process, complete with tremendous disruptions. The nations of the world must recapitalize their central banks as well as their entire banking systems. They will convert USTreasury Bonds to Gold & Silver bullion. They will then move to convert UKGilts, EuroBonds, PIGS sovereign bonds, JapGovtBonds, and other toxic paper into Gold Bullion. The bullion banks must restore the allocated gold accounts they pillaged. The USFed and Bank of England must restore the allocated gold accounts they rehypothecated (borrowed, stole). The birth of the Eurasian Trade Zone is on the verge, and the US & UK fraud kings are not to be invited. The BRICS Bank will soon emerge with a key role to convert toxic sovereign bonds into Gold Bullion for the Emerging Market nations. The parade of gold-backed and resource-backed currencies will provide a procession of legitimacy and honor. The US & UK will be outside looking in, a punishment for acting at the Axis of Fascism in the last few decades, not just the last several years. The 911 event was just a coming out party, their Patriot Act an actual Gestapo Manifesto declaration. The true defense is to acquire Gold & Silver and gild the doors from the jackboots.
 
 
 
 

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Market Bids up Miners

Barrick Gold (ABX) Weekly chart - 18.77
 

After two years of cost overruns and sinking gold prices, 2014 has started off with a reversal in tactics for Barrick Gold.  Old management is on the way out and new management is coming in.  And while ABX earnings are still nearly four weeks away, it appears that the market is expecting some positive news for this gold and copper miner.  The fact that gold and silver prices are starting to come to life also help.
 
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Another item of note is the negative action of Emerging Market Stocks.  South Korea is already down 6% this year.  Russia, China, Brazil and others are also down.  Is this merely the results of a strong dollar?  Or is there a rotation in the works?
 

Perhaps a precursor of things to come?  Will the US markets ever crack?  Only time will tell what this means.  My guess however is that the Dow will rise stunningly before this comes to an end.  There are still trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines.  One thing that over 40 years of market watching has shown me is that the market will find a way to take every penny you have.
 
When you see the Dow double or even triple from it's current level, sell everything.  Leave the country and go to some island that doesn't yet have CNBC or Bloomberg.  It's the only way you will be safe!
 
 
More to come. . . 
 
 


Sunday, January 5, 2014

Will There Be Another Bubble?


An interesting Dow/Gold chart floating around. Some use this as evidence that Gold will soar while the Dow flounders. But that analysis is hard to see. Looks as if there are two 35 year cycles, one peak comes prior to the Great Depression in 1929. The Next Peak appears in 1965 and the recent peak appears in 2000! If such cycles are true, the next major bubble will occur in 2035 with the Dow being some 45 times the price of gold!

At the time of this writing, the Dow/Gold Ratio is close to 14.  Kind of makes you think twice about shorting the market and going long gold, huh?

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Higher Interest Rates Coming Soon?


p
I've been talking about the US Dollar as a "flight to quality" move as the debt of Greece and other European nations have recently been downgraded by debt rating agencies. And it seemed that the dollar would have to stage some kind of upside move as everyone has been bearish on the dollar. The huge run on gold has shown that there is very little faith in the dollar as the printing presses in Washington have been operating at maximum capacity. But maybe, just maybe, the dollar move is foreshadowing a real move in the dollar, not caused by a global crisis, but instead, higher interest rates?


The dollar has been subdued not only by dilution coming from the printing of more money, but also by the extremely low interest rates kept in place by the Fed. What would happen though, if interest rates were to break out of these low levels and move to say 6% on the 10-year note? I'd bet that there would be a strong demand for the dollar. Is this possible?


It sure does look like it. The chart above clearly appears to be reflecting a reverse head and shoulders pattern. And with a low on the rates at 2% and the neckline at 4%, should 10 year rates break out above the 4% level, there is a strong chance, based on technicals, that the rates will move to 6%.


It appears that for now, rates may fall a bit further, especially if there is a "flight to safety" move going on. Or perhaps it is just trying to gather enough steam to push it through the strong 4% resistance that is sure to come.


No matter what, it appears that the dollar should be moving higher. Those of you who have married their gold position, be careful. You may be in for some great pain.

Some Hidden Gems in a Sea of Red


State Street Corp (SST) is up more than 6% this morning along with several other banks that reported strong earnings. If SST can hold break out levels, certainly appears to be headed much higher. Few other bright spots exist this morning as a strong dollar is wreaking havoc on foreign stocks and ETFs. Both Sweden (EWD) and Spain (EWP) are off nearly 4.7%. The All US stock ETF (IYY) is down 1.52% while the All World MINUS US (ACWX) is down twice that amount at 3.19%. Metals and mining stocks are all down sharply.


US Treasury securities were up across the board, reflecting FLIGHT TO SAFETY!!!

Friday, November 27, 2009

Gold - Commentary by Alan Greenspan

Gold and Economic Freedom

by Alan Greenspan

[written in 1966]

An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense - perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire - that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each
implies and requires the other.


In order to understand the source of their antagonism, it is necessary first to understand the specific role of gold in a free society.


Money is the common denominator of all economic transactions. It is that commodity which serves as a medium of exchange, is universally acceptable to all participants in an exchange economy as payment for their goods or services, and can, therefore, be used as a standard of market value and as a store of value, i.e., as a means of saving.


The existence of such a commodity is a precondition of a division of labor economy. If men did not have some commodity of objective value which was generally acceptable as money, they would have to resort to primitive barter or be forced to live on self-sufficient farms and forgo the inestimable advantages of specialization. If men had no means to store value, i.e., to save, neither long-range planning nor exchange would be possible.


What medium of exchange will be acceptable to all participants in an economy is not determined arbitrarily. First, the medium of exchange should be durable. In a primitive society of meager wealth, wheat might be sufficiently durable to serve as a medium, since all exchanges would occur only during and immediately after the harvest, leaving no value-surplus to store. But where store-of-value considerations are important, as they are in richer, more civilized societies, the medium of exchange must be a durable commodity, usually a metal. A metal is generally chosen because it is homogeneous and divisible: every unit is the same as every other and it can be blended or formed in any quantity. Precious jewels, for example, are neither homogeneous nor divisible. More important, the commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires for luxuries are unlimited and, therefore, luxury goods are always in demand and will always be acceptable. Wheat is a luxury in underfed civilizations, but not in a prosperous society. Cigarettes ordinarily would not serve as money, but they did in post-World War II Europe where they were considered a luxury. The term "luxury good" implies scarcity and high unit value. Having a high unit value, such a good is easily portable; for instance, an ounce of gold is worth a half-ton of pig iron.


In the early stages of a developing money economy, several media of exchange might be used, since a wide variety of commodities would fulfill the foregoing conditions. However, one of the commodities will gradually displace all others, by being more widely acceptable. Preferences on what to hold as a store of value, will shift to the
most widely acceptable commodity, which, in turn, will make it still more acceptable. The shift is progressive until that commodity becomes the sole medium of exchange. The use of a single medium is highly advantageous for the same reasons that a money economy is superior to a barter economy: it makes exchanges possible on an incalculably wider scale.


Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange. Since the beginning of World War I, it has been virtually the sole international standard of exchange. If all goods and services were to be paid for in gold, large payments would be difficult to execute and this would tend to limit the extent of a society's divisions of labor and specialization. Thus a logical extension of the creation of a medium of exchange is the development of a banking system and credit instruments (bank notes and deposits) which act as a substitute for, but are convertible into, gold.


A free banking system based on gold is able to extend credit and thus to create bank notes (currency) and deposits, according to the production requirements of the economy. Individual owners of gold are induced, by payments of interest, to deposit their gold in a bank (against which they can draw checks). But since it is rarely the case that all depositors want to withdraw all their gold at the same time, the banker need keep only a fraction of his total deposits in gold as reserves. This enables the banker to loan out more than the amount of his gold deposits (which means that he holds claims to gold rather than gold as security of his deposits). But the amount of loans which he can afford to make is not arbitrary: he has to gauge it in relation to his reserves and to the status of his investments.


When banks loan money to finance productive and profitable endeavors,the loans are paid off rapidly and bank credit continues to be generally available. But when the business ventures financed by bank credit are less profitable and slow to pay off, bankers soon find that their loans outstanding are excessive relative to their gold reserves, and they begin to curtail new lending, usually by charging higher interest rates. This tends to restrict the financing of new ventures and requires the existing borrowers to improve their profitability before they can obtain credit for further expansion. Thus, under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth. When gold is accepted as the medium of exchange by most or all nations, an unhampered free international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide division of labor and the broadest international trade. Even though the units of exchange (the dollar, the pound, the franc, etc.) differ from country to country, when all are defined in terms of gold the economies of the different countries act as one-so long as there are no restraints on trade or on the movement of capital. Credit, interest rates, and prices tend to follow similar patterns in all countries. For example, if banks in one country extend credit too liberally, interest rates in that country will tend to fall, inducing depositors to shift their gold to higher-interest paying banks in other countries. This will immediately cause a shortage of bank reserves in the "easy money" country, inducing tighter credit standards and a return to competitively higher interest rates again.


A fully free banking system and fully consistent gold standard have not as yet been achieved. But prior to World War I, the banking system in the United States (and in most of the world) was based on gold and even though governments intervened occasionally, banking was more free than controlled. Periodically, as a result of overly rapid credit expansion, banks became loaned up to the limit of their gold reserves, interest rates rose sharply, new credit was cut off, and the economy went into a sharp, but short-lived recession. (Compared with the depressions of 1920 and 1932, the pre-World War I business declines were mild indeed.) It was limited gold reserves that stopped the unbalanced expansions of business activity, before they could develop into the post-World Was I type of disaster. The readjustment periods were short and the economies quickly reestablished a sound basis to resume expansion.


But the process of cure was misdiagnosed as the disease: if shortage of bank reserves was causing a business decline-argued economic interventionists-why not find a way of supplying increased reserves to the banks so they never need be short! If banks can continue to loan money indefinitely-it was claimed-there need never be any slumps in business. And so the Federal Reserve System was organized in 1913. It consisted of twelve regional Federal Reserve banks nominally owned by private bankers, but in fact government sponsored, controlled, and supported. Credit extended by these banks is in practice (though not legally) backed by the taxing power of the federal government. Technically, we remained on the gold standard; individuals were still free to own gold, and gold continued to be used as bank reserves. But now, in addition to gold, credit extended by the Federal Reserve banks ("paper reserves") could serve as legal tender to pay depositors.


When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve's attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain's gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates. The "Fed" succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market-triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930's.


With a logic reminiscent of a generation earlier, statists argued that the gold standard was largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the Great Depression. If the gold standard had not existed, they argued, Britain's abandonment of gold payments in 1931 would not have caused the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that since 1913, we had been, not on a gold standard, but on what may be termed "a mixed gold standard"; yet it is gold that took the blame.) But the opposition to the gold standard in any form-from a growing number of welfare-state advocates-was prompted by a much subtler insight: the realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending (the hallmark of the welfare state). Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. A substantial part of the confiscation is effected by taxation. But the welfare statists were quick to recognize that if they wished to retain political power, the amount of taxation had to be limited and they had to resort to programs of massive deficit spending, i.e., they had to borrow money, by issuing government bonds, to finance welfare expenditures on a large scale.


Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which-through a complex series of steps-the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.


In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.


This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.



Alan Greenspan


This article originally appeared in a newsletter: The Objectivist published in 1966 and was reprinted in Ayn Rand's Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal