Sunday, February 2, 2020
Intermediate Top Alert
Saturday, July 9, 2016
Jobs Data Delights All
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported employment gains far exceeding even the most bullish expectations Friday. Preliminary numbers indicate that payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June. US stocks climbed to highs on the news with the Standard and Poors 500 index closing at 2,129.90.
BONDS SURGE
US Bonds surged to all time highs Friday on BLS reports that the number of unemployed individuals in the US increased by 347,000. The Unemployment Rate advanced 0.2% to 4.9%.
The 30 Year Bond Yield Index (TYX) closed at 21.10 (2.11%). Levels not seen before. Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) TLT, an easy way to trade bonds on the stock market, closed at an all time high of 143.60.
PRECIOUS METALS HIT MULTI-YEAR HIGHS
Not to be left out of the party, precious metals, although they sold off initially when the employment news was released, quickly reversed and closed at multi-year highs.
SLV, one of the ways to trade silver on the stock market, ended the week at 19.22, up $0.48 or 2.6%.
All in all, most things did well with the exception of European and Latin American stocks and commodities (not including precious metals).
This all comes as no surprise. As mentioned last week, the jobs number didn't really matter. Central banks, unable to get any kind of inflation going, are desperate to stimulate the economies and continue to print more and more currencies in an effort to do so. It's not really working but the extra added juice sure does some good stuff to the markets.
For a few years now, I've been accumulating physical gold and silver even as I watched prices fall, seemingly forever. It's not easy for most people to look at physical things like precious metal bullion coins and not think of them in terms of their worth in dollars. The trick in the understanding is to realize that since 2008/2009, the Federal Reserve has increased the money they have created from around $800 billion to over $4 trillion, nearly a five time increase. Local banks, through the fractional reserve system, create additional multiples of this amount. When you understand how much new money has been created and then consider that there is absolutely nothing that backs this currency, a prudent person would be thinking "I've got to turn this worthless currency into a hard asset as soon as I can."
A CHART TO THINK UPON
As I am always talking about gold and silver to people, the one thing I hear all the time is, what good is it? You can't eat it. They can't conceive that the US Dollar could be as vulnerable to devaluation as the Russian Ruble or the Mexican Peso. The truth is, any paper currency is only worth what others accept it to be worth. If a dollar crisis were to occur, something similar to what continues to be happening in Greece, one needs some form of money to transact daily business with. Who knows how it can or will play out.
Throughout much of civilization, silver has been used as a currency and perhaps someday, it will again. If it were today, and the stock market was priced in silver, this is how it would look.
So while the stock market may be going up and even making new all time highs, remember, when we are looking at price charts of the market, it is soaring based on purchases made with paper money that has no real value. It was created from nothing, with no assets backing it up and is being used in unlimited quantities to keep pushing stock prices higher. But the stock market, when priced in terms of something that has an intrinsic value, like silver, is in a Bear Market.
BONDS (TLT) PRICED IN GOLD (GLD)
Looking at bonds in terms of gold, this is breaking down as well.
Don't let surging markets influence your buying decisions, Central Bankers can create the illusion they wish to create. If we do our homework, we can catch a glimpse of reality.
Saturday, June 4, 2016
The Charade Continues
It was almost humorous to see the big opening moves down each day over the past week and then see prices climb back for the rest of the day.
While I don't know for sure, it was reported last week that Anonymous hacked into the Federal Reserve trading accounts and discovered that the Fed owns more than 50% of many major corporations.
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/1384
Would anyone really be surprised? I mean people who watch and study the market closely, not the average guy. Most of us who have been involved in markets for 30 years or more see that nothing works anymore. No level of technical or fundamental analysis works. The markets reflect the activities of the central banks, to include the Federal Reserve's Plunge Protection Team (PPT) and their crony's the High Frequency Traders. Many believe that Citadel is actually a pseudo-extension of the Federal Reserve. And the game extends to our national elected officials who not too long ago rejected a bill that would prohibit them from buying stocks on the knowledge they have (i.e., insider trading). For sure, why would they cook the golden goose?
So for my part, I have maintained a position in SDS and have more or less ignored it for quite awhile now. We are back to the low points where I had done my last accumulations but have chosen to buy no more. It is my contention that the Federal Reserve and their agents will keep the markets up at least until the election in November. This seemed to have been confirmed when US President Barack Obama met privately with Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. Of course no notes were taken of the meeting. One can only guess what the President and Chairman might be discussing.
WHERE DO WE TURN?
Well, all is not lost. A review of the markets to date shows the following:
It's clear to see that Silver and Gold have been the standouts this year. And of course, it only makes sense with world central banks continuing to print more money to monetize debt. I recall reading that some $10 trillion in sovereign debt now carries negative interest rates. How unfortunate it is for us minions that we can't take on more debt and get paid for doing it. It would be like being promised free gasoline if you buy a new car. Imagine.
So paper currency is really worthless. After all interest rates do reflect the cost of money and there is no cost. Think about that when you are slaving away at your job and for what? You get paid in worthless fiat currency. What a delusion. So for a few years now, I have been mindlessly buying physical gold and silver. I do so with pleasure as I can't wait to unload the worthless fiat currency. I have thoroughly brainwashed myself in this truth. If I believe it, then it must be true, right?
Well I do have something solid that for the millennia has held value. And I do love the idea that these precious metals were forged in the fires of some exploding super nova gazillions of years ago. Also that all of the gold that was ever mined is still in existence today. Who knows who could have handled some of the gold? Perhaps Alexander the Great or Jesus? Who can say? It lasts forever.
So I could continue on about the value of hard assets that include real estate as well, but living in Illinois and even worse, Cook County, both virtually bankrupt entities, property taxes can and will grow to the sky to the point that the governments will eventually seize all properties due to tax delinquencies. Imagine that, the Fed will own all the mortgages and the governments will be fighting for the title. Anyway, I digress.
I do favor silver at this point and here are some charts to justify my thoughts.
This chart shows the Exchange Traded Fund that reflects the value of silver. The price here is a little less than the actual physical silver because, well let's face it, this price reflects a digital entry or paper certificate. Theoretically, there is supposed to be the actual commodity backing it, theoretically. So it costs less than the actual stuff you can put in your pocket. And rightfully so. Gee, am I feeling cynical this morning?
It does appear that we have had a nice bounce after several years of downward movement. Keep in mind that real buyers of precious metals feel that price is irrelevant since paper money has no intrinsic value at all. Anyway, for those who do like to buy low and sell high, Silver has made a strong move up and the 20 week moving average is now trending higher. The trend is your friend.
GOLD SILVER RATIO
For a long time now, for as bad as gold has been, silver has been even worse! The chart above shows the gold/silver ratio. Gold has been almost 80 times more valuable than silver! This is extremely abnormal since silver and gold are mined together with a ratio of 15 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. By recent historical levels, one would expect a gold/silver ratio of about 30. It got up to 80!
The chart shows that this ratio has broken down some and rebounded, but only to the moving average. Let's see if it continues breaking down, as it should.
SP500/SILVER RATIO
This chart too is starting to break down meaning that silver is starting to outperform stocks. This is a no brainer as we saw in the table that silver is up 18% on the year while stocks are just managing to keep their heads above water.
Could be that silver will continue to be the big winner, besting both stocks and gold.
A word of caution though, if you do buy physical precious metals, be sure to keep them close at hand and not in a bank safety deposit box. If currencies do collapse (think of Venezuela, Argentina, Greece, Cyrus, etc.) you will not be able to get into the bank to access your valuables.
____________________________
Bottom Line: I'm curious to see if I'm right and the markets do stay up until the election. This would go to prove just how rigged the system really is.
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Three Week Test of High Next Week
As expected, markets closed down again for the second week in a row, setting up an anticipated topping formation, a three week test of the recent highs.
Should we fail this test of the high, expect some Central Bank to come out and goose the markets again.
They'll do everything that they can to keep it going until the system collapses.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
How Much Longer with the U.S. Dollar Last?
Saturday, January 18, 2014
Market Bids up Miners
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| Barrick Gold (ABX) Weekly chart - 18.77 |
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Will There Be Another Bubble?
An interesting Dow/Gold chart floating around. Some use this as evidence that Gold will soar while the Dow flounders. But that analysis is hard to see. Looks as if there are two 35 year cycles, one peak comes prior to the Great Depression in 1929. The Next Peak appears in 1965 and the recent peak appears in 2000! If such cycles are true, the next major bubble will occur in 2035 with the Dow being some 45 times the price of gold!
At the time of this writing, the Dow/Gold Ratio is close to 14. Kind of makes you think twice about shorting the market and going long gold, huh?
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Higher Interest Rates Coming Soon?

I've been talking about the US Dollar as a "flight to quality" move as the debt of Greece and other European nations have recently been downgraded by debt rating agencies. And it seemed that the dollar would have to stage some kind of upside move as everyone has been bearish on the dollar. The huge run on gold has shown that there is very little faith in the dollar as the printing presses in Washington have been operating at maximum capacity. But maybe, just maybe, the dollar move is foreshadowing a real move in the dollar, not caused by a global crisis, but instead, higher interest rates?
The dollar has been subdued not only by dilution coming from the printing of more money, but also by the extremely low interest rates kept in place by the Fed. What would happen though, if interest rates were to break out of these low levels and move to say 6% on the 10-year note? I'd bet that there would be a strong demand for the dollar. Is this possible?
It sure does look like it. The chart above clearly appears to be reflecting a reverse head and shoulders pattern. And with a low on the rates at 2% and the neckline at 4%, should 10 year rates break out above the 4% level, there is a strong chance, based on technicals, that the rates will move to 6%.
It appears that for now, rates may fall a bit further, especially if there is a "flight to safety" move going on. Or perhaps it is just trying to gather enough steam to push it through the strong 4% resistance that is sure to come.
No matter what, it appears that the dollar should be moving higher. Those of you who have married their gold position, be careful. You may be in for some great pain.
Some Hidden Gems in a Sea of Red
State Street Corp (SST) is up more than 6% this morning along with several other banks that reported strong earnings. If SST can hold break out levels, certainly appears to be headed much higher. Few other bright spots exist this morning as a strong dollar is wreaking havoc on foreign stocks and ETFs. Both Sweden (EWD) and Spain (EWP) are off nearly 4.7%. The All US stock ETF (IYY) is down 1.52% while the All World MINUS US (ACWX) is down twice that amount at 3.19%. Metals and mining stocks are all down sharply.
US Treasury securities were up across the board, reflecting FLIGHT TO SAFETY!!!
Friday, November 27, 2009
Gold - Commentary by Alan Greenspan
by Alan Greenspan
[written in 1966]
An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense - perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire - that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each
implies and requires the other.
In order to understand the source of their antagonism, it is necessary first to understand the specific role of gold in a free society.
Money is the common denominator of all economic transactions. It is that commodity which serves as a medium of exchange, is universally acceptable to all participants in an exchange economy as payment for their goods or services, and can, therefore, be used as a standard of market value and as a store of value, i.e., as a means of saving.
The existence of such a commodity is a precondition of a division of labor economy. If men did not have some commodity of objective value which was generally acceptable as money, they would have to resort to primitive barter or be forced to live on self-sufficient farms and forgo the inestimable advantages of specialization. If men had no means to store value, i.e., to save, neither long-range planning nor exchange would be possible.
What medium of exchange will be acceptable to all participants in an economy is not determined arbitrarily. First, the medium of exchange should be durable. In a primitive society of meager wealth, wheat might be sufficiently durable to serve as a medium, since all exchanges would occur only during and immediately after the harvest, leaving no value-surplus to store. But where store-of-value considerations are important, as they are in richer, more civilized societies, the medium of exchange must be a durable commodity, usually a metal. A metal is generally chosen because it is homogeneous and divisible: every unit is the same as every other and it can be blended or formed in any quantity. Precious jewels, for example, are neither homogeneous nor divisible. More important, the commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires for luxuries are unlimited and, therefore, luxury goods are always in demand and will always be acceptable. Wheat is a luxury in underfed civilizations, but not in a prosperous society. Cigarettes ordinarily would not serve as money, but they did in post-World War II Europe where they were considered a luxury. The term "luxury good" implies scarcity and high unit value. Having a high unit value, such a good is easily portable; for instance, an ounce of gold is worth a half-ton of pig iron.
In the early stages of a developing money economy, several media of exchange might be used, since a wide variety of commodities would fulfill the foregoing conditions. However, one of the commodities will gradually displace all others, by being more widely acceptable. Preferences on what to hold as a store of value, will shift to the
most widely acceptable commodity, which, in turn, will make it still more acceptable. The shift is progressive until that commodity becomes the sole medium of exchange. The use of a single medium is highly advantageous for the same reasons that a money economy is superior to a barter economy: it makes exchanges possible on an incalculably wider scale.
Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange. Since the beginning of World War I, it has been virtually the sole international standard of exchange. If all goods and services were to be paid for in gold, large payments would be difficult to execute and this would tend to limit the extent of a society's divisions of labor and specialization. Thus a logical extension of the creation of a medium of exchange is the development of a banking system and credit instruments (bank notes and deposits) which act as a substitute for, but are convertible into, gold.
A free banking system based on gold is able to extend credit and thus to create bank notes (currency) and deposits, according to the production requirements of the economy. Individual owners of gold are induced, by payments of interest, to deposit their gold in a bank (against which they can draw checks). But since it is rarely the case that all depositors want to withdraw all their gold at the same time, the banker need keep only a fraction of his total deposits in gold as reserves. This enables the banker to loan out more than the amount of his gold deposits (which means that he holds claims to gold rather than gold as security of his deposits). But the amount of loans which he can afford to make is not arbitrary: he has to gauge it in relation to his reserves and to the status of his investments.
When banks loan money to finance productive and profitable endeavors,the loans are paid off rapidly and bank credit continues to be generally available. But when the business ventures financed by bank credit are less profitable and slow to pay off, bankers soon find that their loans outstanding are excessive relative to their gold reserves, and they begin to curtail new lending, usually by charging higher interest rates. This tends to restrict the financing of new ventures and requires the existing borrowers to improve their profitability before they can obtain credit for further expansion. Thus, under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth. When gold is accepted as the medium of exchange by most or all nations, an unhampered free international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide division of labor and the broadest international trade. Even though the units of exchange (the dollar, the pound, the franc, etc.) differ from country to country, when all are defined in terms of gold the economies of the different countries act as one-so long as there are no restraints on trade or on the movement of capital. Credit, interest rates, and prices tend to follow similar patterns in all countries. For example, if banks in one country extend credit too liberally, interest rates in that country will tend to fall, inducing depositors to shift their gold to higher-interest paying banks in other countries. This will immediately cause a shortage of bank reserves in the "easy money" country, inducing tighter credit standards and a return to competitively higher interest rates again.
A fully free banking system and fully consistent gold standard have not as yet been achieved. But prior to World War I, the banking system in the United States (and in most of the world) was based on gold and even though governments intervened occasionally, banking was more free than controlled. Periodically, as a result of overly rapid credit expansion, banks became loaned up to the limit of their gold reserves, interest rates rose sharply, new credit was cut off, and the economy went into a sharp, but short-lived recession. (Compared with the depressions of 1920 and 1932, the pre-World War I business declines were mild indeed.) It was limited gold reserves that stopped the unbalanced expansions of business activity, before they could develop into the post-World Was I type of disaster. The readjustment periods were short and the economies quickly reestablished a sound basis to resume expansion.
But the process of cure was misdiagnosed as the disease: if shortage of bank reserves was causing a business decline-argued economic interventionists-why not find a way of supplying increased reserves to the banks so they never need be short! If banks can continue to loan money indefinitely-it was claimed-there need never be any slumps in business. And so the Federal Reserve System was organized in 1913. It consisted of twelve regional Federal Reserve banks nominally owned by private bankers, but in fact government sponsored, controlled, and supported. Credit extended by these banks is in practice (though not legally) backed by the taxing power of the federal government. Technically, we remained on the gold standard; individuals were still free to own gold, and gold continued to be used as bank reserves. But now, in addition to gold, credit extended by the Federal Reserve banks ("paper reserves") could serve as legal tender to pay depositors.
When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve's attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain's gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates. The "Fed" succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market-triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930's.
With a logic reminiscent of a generation earlier, statists argued that the gold standard was largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the Great Depression. If the gold standard had not existed, they argued, Britain's abandonment of gold payments in 1931 would not have caused the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that since 1913, we had been, not on a gold standard, but on what may be termed "a mixed gold standard"; yet it is gold that took the blame.) But the opposition to the gold standard in any form-from a growing number of welfare-state advocates-was prompted by a much subtler insight: the realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending (the hallmark of the welfare state). Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. A substantial part of the confiscation is effected by taxation. But the welfare statists were quick to recognize that if they wished to retain political power, the amount of taxation had to be limited and they had to resort to programs of massive deficit spending, i.e., they had to borrow money, by issuing government bonds, to finance welfare expenditures on a large scale.
Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which-through a complex series of steps-the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.
In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
Alan Greenspan
This article originally appeared in a newsletter: The Objectivist published in 1966 and was reprinted in Ayn Rand's Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal


















