Thursday, August 14, 2014

SP to Test . . . but what?

Stocks never did come down to make a test of the lows on Tuesday but instead, rocketed ahead, now rebounding up close to the SPY's 20 day moving average.

The average rate of change for the 20 day moving average is down .20 per day, so if the trend is your friend, one might consider adding some puts here. 

For Elliott Wave fans, while I am not an expert in this area, I do keep my eye on what the bloggers are saying.  Of course, there is no concensus and even the wave counts are all over the place.  It could be that we are in the process of making another strong wave down which could at the very least hit the 190 level.  My gut tells me though that we might break down even further to the 186 level before then turning up.

I myself am conflicted as where the market will be going.  I see the tried and true three-week-test of the highs developing and it seems that each time we have tested this, we broke through and made new highs.  Yet the case for the downside is convincing as well.  On a Fibonacci retracement, with a SPY coming in at 199.09 and the low at 189.61, a 62% retracement brings SPY to 195.48.  In premarket trading, futures rallied and SPY came close to this mark before turning around.

That being said, I am long term bullish and short term Bearish.

Comments welcome

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