Monday, September 8, 2014

S&P Rangebound

The SPY ETF closed down 0.26% at 200.59 today, spending much of the day drifting lower as news of a potential Scotland breakaway from Great Britain sent a mild concern through the market.  As usual however, prices rebounded into the end of the trading session.  While the chart above is only a five minute chart, it looks as if the last gasp up resulted in a failed 3 period test of the high.  Chances are that some downward movement will continue in the days ahead.
Reviewing the daily close chart, it appears that price is being constrained by the upper band.  We might even repeat the previous sideway action that occurred during June and July, the last time price was testing the upper band.
My momentum indicator above shows the rapid decline of volatility over the past few days after rocketing to high levels.  You can see how low volatility got during the last sideways move.  We aren't even close to that yet.
My best guess is that price will continue to drift sideways for another five days until it meets the 20-day moving average.  At that point, I would expect another surge higher.

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