Sunday, August 10, 2014

Get Prepared for Another Big Market Move Down

I received an E Mail this morning from Toby Conner at GoldScents reflecting the same upcoming moves that I have been anticipating in the markets.  While my rationale is purely technical, the timing and magnitude of the moves are similar.  I would like to share with you.

Toby Conner's Blog

I disagree that Friday's pump up in the market was actions of the Fed preventing the market from properly correcting.  I had previously read several technicians, the day before, projecting a move to 1933 on the SP 500.

For example, said this on August 7,

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th August, 2014

by Lara · August 7th, 2014 · Public Analysis, SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · 0 Comments

A new low and downwards movement still fits the current Elliott wave count.
Summary: I expect that a low degree B wave has begun and may take about five to seven days in total to unfold. B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and structure of all Elliott waves. There are more than thirteen possible structures of a B wave. It will most likely be very choppy and overlapping. Alternate wave counts will be essential, and the wave count will change as the structure unfolds. In more traditional technical analysis terms I expect the S&P has begun a sideways consolidation phase. For tomorrow I expect a green candlestick, with upwards movement to a short term target at 1,933.
That being said, from my own very basic analysis, I would expect that a true low would be tested, generally with a three day test of the low. 

I will be looking for this test of the low on Tuesday.  It may hold, it may not.  In any event, I believe that we are close to a low, either at 191 on SPY or perhaps in the 188 range, still, we are close. 

What comes next is a similar test, that being a three-week test of the highs, near 198 on SPY.  It could move higher and test the 200 level, as Toby and others suggest.

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