Friday, February 5, 2010

Europe Debt Crisis Fails to Sway US Rates

We have been hawkish on interest rates for a very long time now and have been adding on to our Ultra Short Bond position (TBT) and even going short the interest rate futures. While there has been some volatility in the interest rates as many fear that the sovereign debt issues in Europe will ripple through the system just as the mortgage-backed securities did recently. Yet look at the long term chart of the 30-year interest rate. This monthly chart shows that there is definitely upside momentum. It's almost a sure thing that rates are going to test the 5% level. As the European crisis is hardly making a dent (and isn't even noticeable) in this chart, We will be adding to our short position today.

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